Production and cost model for additional capacity: water, energy, feed, labour, biosecurity and infrastructure
Updated: 2026-10-13 · FishMatch Group
Short answer
Model added capacity as the difference between today and the expanded farm, not as a standalone farm. Start from your recorded cost per kg, split it into variable costs (feed, energy, water, seed) and fixed costs (labour, maintenance, biosecurity, depreciation), then estimate how each line changes with the new units. Run the model with low, expected and high assumptions for survival, FCR and price. The model shows what must be true for the investment to work; it is not a forecast or a promise of ROI.
Model structure
- Baseline from your reports: last 12 months or last full cycles — harvested kg, each cost line, and cost per kg.
- Added production: new volume or area × planned harvest density × cycles per year × survival assumption.
- Added cost by line: variable lines scale with kg produced; fixed lines step up when you add a shift, a building or a permit.
- Marginal cost per kg = added cost ÷ added kg. Compare with your current cost per kg and with realistic sale prices.
- Sensitivity: change one assumption at a time and see which moves the result most.
Inputs table
| Cost line | Where the data comes from | How it scales | If missing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feed | Feed invoices, economic FCR from your cycles | Added kg × FCR × feed price | Use your worst recent FCR, not a brochure value |
| Energy | Electricity/fuel bills, meter readings | kWh per kg today × added kg; add new pumps/aerators separately | Ask suppliers for rated power and estimated running hours |
| Water | Water bills, pumping logs, permits | m³ per kg or per unit; check permit limits | Measure flow for a week; confirm rights with the authority |
| Seed / juveniles | Purchase records | Number stocked × price | Get written quotes; note availability risk |
| Labour | Payroll, rosters | Steps: extra shifts or roles | List tasks per unit and hours; ask the team |
| Biosecurity | Disinfectants, testing, PPE, health services | Per unit and per visit | Use WOAH guidance and your health advisor to list needs |
| Maintenance | Maintenance tickets, spares | Share of equipment value per year | Ask suppliers for a service plan |
| Infrastructure / capex | Quotes, previous construction costs | One-off; depreciation over useful life | Request quotes through an RFQ |
Hypothetical example — not farm data, not a benchmark. Assumptions are invented and visible. Added RAS volume 500 m³; planned harvest density 50 kg/m³; 1.5 cycles/year; survival assumption 85%: added kg ≈ 500 × 50 × 1.5 × 0.85 = 31,875 kg/year. Feed: FCR 1.3 × price 1.4/kg → 1.82 per kg. Energy: 3 kWh/kg × 0.15 → 0.45 per kg. Other variable 0.40. Fixed added: one technician 30,000 + maintenance 12,000 + biosecurity 6,000 = 48,000/year → 1.51 per kg. Marginal operating cost ≈ 4.18 per kg before depreciation and financing. Currency units are illustrative.
Run your own figures through the calculator below before relying on the hypothetical example.
Sensitivity checks
| Assumption | Low case | Expected | High case | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survival | Your worst cycle | Your median | Your best cycle | Changes kg sold and fixed cost per kg |
| Economic FCR | Worst | Median | Best | Feed is often the largest line |
| Energy price | Current tariff +X% | Current | Current −X% | Pumping and oxygen scale with price |
| Sale price | Lowest recent | Average | Highest recent | Sets the margin |
Use your own records for the cases. If the project only works in the high case, it is fragile.
Things models often miss
- Ramp-up: the first cycles in new units often differ from steady state.
- Shared bottlenecks: intake, power supply, processing or cold storage may limit the whole farm.
- Biosecurity cost of more traffic, more stock movements and more units.
- Working capital: feed and seed are paid long before harvest income.
Frequently asked questions
Should I use my average cost per kg for the new units?
Use it as a check, not as the model. New units change some lines (energy, labour steps) more than others, so build the added cost line by line.
Where do I get energy figures for equipment I have not bought yet?
Ask suppliers for rated power, expected duty and running hours in their quote. FishMatch can request these in the RFQ and present responses side by side.
Does the model include financing?
Add interest and repayments as separate lines once you have real terms. Financing is optional and external to FishMatch.
Can I use this for shrimp ponds?
Yes. Replace volume with pond area, and density with your planned harvest per hectare; energy is mainly aeration and pumping.
Tools and next steps
- OPEX estimator
- CAPEX estimator
- Energy cost calculator
- Water consumption calculator
- Project scenario tools
- Start a project brief
- Fish farm equipment RFQ
- How the RFQ process works
- How to Analyze Several Fish or Shrimp Crop Cycles to Find the Bottleneck
- Expand Your Fish or Shrimp Farm, or Fix Equipment and Management First?
- Phased Upgrade of Cages, Ponds, RAS, Hatchery, Aeration and Pumps
- Aquaculture Upgrade Plan from Past Reports: Baseline, KPIs and a Staged Trial
Sources
General guidance only. Targets, health decisions and results depend on species, region and system; consult qualified local professionals.