Off-Grid Solar Hatchery

1. CAPEX bands (indicative)

Ranges reflect typical industrial builds; site conditions, exposure, salinity, currency and import duties can move CAPEX by ±25%.

• Civil & site works — 18–28% of total CAPEX. Earthworks, foundations, roads, drainage, security.
• Process equipment — 32–45%. Tanks/cages, filtration, oxygenation, monitoring, feeding.
• Utilities & energy — 10–18%. Grid connection, generators, solar hybrid where applicable.
• Buildings & envelope — 8–15%. Hall, hatchery, office, cold storage.
• Engineering, permits, contingency — 12–18%. EPC fees, design, EIA, 8–12% contingency.

2. OPEX assumptions

• Feed — 45–60% of OPEX; FCR 1.1–1.8 species-dependent; sensitivity to fishmeal / soy price.
• Energy — 10–22% of OPEX; RAS and cold chain are the most energy-intensive.
• Labour — 8–15%; higher in hatchery and processing.
• Juveniles / broodstock — 6–12%.
• Health, chemicals, insurance, R&M — 8–14%.

3. Revenue model

Base case assumes staggered harvests to smooth revenue, single-species production, and farmgate pricing. Premiums (5–20%) available for certified (BAP, ASC, GlobalG.A.P.), local, live or organic products.

• Sales channels: processors (highest volume, lowest margin), wholesale, HORECA, direct export.
• Contracted offtake ≥ 60% of Year-1 volume materially improves debt terms.
• Reject / grade-out fraction: assume 3–8% depending on species and market.

4. Sensitivity (± impact on IRR)

• Feed price ±20% → IRR ±3–5 pts
• Farmgate price ±10% → IRR ±4–6 pts
• Energy tariff / diesel ±30% → IRR ±1–3 pts (RAS higher)
• Mortality +5 pts → IRR −4 pts
• CAPEX overrun +15% → IRR −2–3 pts, DSCR pressure
• Delayed ramp-up +6 months → IRR −2 pts, working-capital gap

5. Risk register (top 10)

1. Site / water rights not fully secured before mobilization
2. Disease outbreak (bacterial, viral, parasitic) — species-specific
3. Water quality drift (salinity, temperature, DO, ammonia)
4. Power interruption impacting aeration / oxygenation
5. Feed supply and price volatility
6. Offtake concentration risk (single buyer)
7. FX and import duty on equipment & feed
8. EPC delivery delays and CAPEX overrun
9. Environmental / social permit disputes
10. Climate and extreme weather (storms, heat, flood)

6. Permit & compliance map

• Land / lease — municipal & national land registry, cadastre.
• Environmental — EIA / ESIA, discharge permit, biodiversity clearance.
• Aquaculture licence — species-specific culture permit; broodstock import if applicable.
• Water abstraction — surface, groundwater or seawater intake permit.
• Construction & occupancy — building permit, fire, occupational safety.
• Export — HACCP, EU/US listing, veterinary health certificate, certificate of origin.
• Energy — grid connection agreement, generator emissions, solar interconnection.